Alerts

A roster of Polymarket wallets kept only while their win rate beats their own average entry price by more than two standard errors of their own sample — an edge large enough that luck is an unlikely explanation — and only while they trade markets Kalshi actually lists, because an alert you cannot act on is noise. Wallets are re-tested continuously and drop off the roster when the edge stops clearing that bar.

Because realized profit is measured off the closed book, and a position ridden to zero is usually never redeemed, so it never enters that book. The leaderboard cannot see those losses. The ledger behind this roster reads the open book too, which is why our set and that leaderboard are different sets of wallets.

These are the same alerts, shown after the fact. Premium receives each one the moment the print clears, in Discord, with the Kalshi market to act on attached. This page is the free, delayed view of what was already sent.

No. Each row is a public fact about what a tracked wallet did, with its price and timestamp. Profitable traders are wrong often, a past record does not predict any single trade, and this page recommends nothing.

Kalshi's tape is anonymous, so trader-level tracking there is impossible and anyone claiming it is inventing it. Polymarket's wallets are public on-chain record. Every alert names the Kalshi market the position corresponds to, which is where a US reader can act.