The record
UPDATED nowDISCORD · LIVETHE WALLETS WE TRACK
MEASURED RECORDS · DEAD POSITIONS COUNTED| Wallet | Category | Settled | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| medvedman | Baseball | 66 | 47.0% @ 48.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 5 | Baseball | 40 | 57.5% @ 45.0¢ |
| elitrav | Baseball | — | sample too small to quote |
| Unnamed wallet 1 | Basketball | 23 | 87.0% @ 62.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 7 | CS2 | 98 | 59.2% @ 49.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 4 | CS2 | 33 | 84.8% @ 55.0¢ |
| tony1919 | Dota2 | 41 | 85.4% @ 73.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 3 | Football | 72 | 61.1% @ 50.0¢ |
| l0wkirkenuinely | LoL | 33 | 81.8% @ 56.0¢ |
| ukresport | LoL | 31 | 58.1% @ 52.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 6 | MMA | 58 | 63.8% @ 52.0¢ |
| Unnamed wallet 2 | MMA | 45 | 86.7% @ 72.0¢ |
| Gambler661 | Tennis | 70 | 61.4% @ 63.0¢ |
Each row is that wallet’s measured Polymarket record in the category the channel follows it for — its most recent settled positions there, with abandoned losing tickets counted as the losses they are. These are facts about the traders the channel follows, not the channel’s alert outcomes — every alert the channel has sent lives on the alerts page, each with its resolution, wins and losses alike.
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This settled record stays free, the losses in the same paint as the wins. Nothing on this page moves behind the price. The alerts page runs 1 day behind the chain for everyone, subscriber or not. Premium's real-time alerts fire the second a trade lands; the page catches up after. Premium sells speed, not signals.
A sample of these alerts posts free in Discord as they land, and every one of them is settled there — misses included. No card, no account.
Join the free Discord →HOW TO READ THIS
- One row, one wallet
- Each row is a tracked wallet's measured Polymarket record in the category the channel follows it for — a wallet may trade other things, but the channel does not alert on them, so they are not in its row. Abandoned losing tickets count as the losses they are. Alert-by-alert outcomes live on the alerts page, a loss shown exactly like a win.
- Win rate never travels alone
- It is always printed beside average entry, because a high win rate bought at 95¢ is a habit, not an edge. The gap between the two IS the edge, and the combined tile above weights it by each wallet's sample.
- Who gets in
- One rule, and it is the same rule that decides who the channel alerts on: a wallet is admitted only while its win rate beats its own average entry by more than two standard errors of its own sample, and only while it trades markets Kalshi lists. Stop clearing that bar and it leaves the roster until its record recovers.
- Where the numbers come from
- Each wallet's public on-chain book: settled positions read newest-first, plus open positions the market has already decided against. We estimate nothing, and a rate is only quoted once a wallet has twenty settled positions to carry it.
- What this is not
- Not a forecast, not a recommendation, and not a claim about what a reader would earn. An alert is what a tracked wallet did and what the market then decided; nothing of ours ranks, rates or labels a single row.
- Why only Polymarket names
- Kalshi's tape is anonymous — it carries no identities at all — so trader-level tracking there is impossible, and anyone claiming it is inventing it. Kalshi is where an alert gets acted on, which is why every alert carries its Kalshi market.
The roster is still trading. Its new prints land on Alerts as alerts, with the side, the price and the outcome once the market resolves.
The Discord channel pushes those prints the second they land, in real time, with the Kalshi market attached.
DISCORD · the channel's alerts in the categories it currently sends, with the market's own resolution of the side named · an alert counts only once it resolved; open positions are shown as open and counted nowhere · outcomes are the market's, not a follower's realized result · described, never advised.
Nothing here tells you what to do. Some competitors promise verified traders or winning entries; that is data that does not exist or claims regulators have acted against. This site shows the public record, fast, with the misses on the page.
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