2026 MIDTERM ODDS · NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina Senate 2026: odds and whale flow.
Kalshi prices Democrats at 90 cents to win the North Carolina Senate race. The seat is open with Thom Tillis retiring, and Democrat Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley.
as of 2026-07-29 05:21 UTC · source: Kalshi SENATENC-26
THE ODDS
| PARTY | PRICE | IMPLIED | 24H Δ | 24H VOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 90¢ | 90% | -1¢ | 303 |
| Republicans | 11¢ | 11% | — | 1.0K |
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THE RACE
The seat is open: Thom Tillis, the Republican incumbent, is retiring rather than seeking another term. Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley will contest it on November 3.
Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic as of around July 1, and Sabato's Crystal Ball had it at Leans Democratic on June 11. That makes North Carolina the only Republican-held Senate seat either rater scores as leaning toward Democrats, and the likeliest seat in the chamber to change parties on the raters' published boards. A rating is a dated judgment, not a result. The market price above moves on its own, trade by trade, and can part company with the raters at any time.
WHALE FLOW · NORTH CAROLINA SENATE
Whale-sized trades on this race total $2.2K over the last 30 days. Of that, 100 percent is on NO on the Republican contract.
bought YES on the Democratic contract · North Carolina Senate winner?
at 89¢ · 10× typical
$894K
bought YES on the Democratic contract · North Carolina Senate winner?
at 90¢ · 0× typical
$5.4K
bought NO on the Republican contract · North Carolina Senate winner?
at 90¢ · 11× typical
$2.2K
bought NO on the Republican contract · North Carolina Senate winner?
at 88¢ · 6× typical
$1.2K
The largest whale-sized trades on the North Carolina Senate market, last 30 days. The public tape is anonymous, so a whale here is a large trade, not an identified trader. Described, never advised.
Every print above hit the live feed the moment it landed. The Discord posts the largest in real time, free.
HOW THIS MARKET SETTLES
This race trades as one contract per party. Hold the Democratic contract and it pays $1 if the Democratic candidate wins the seat, hold the Republican contract and it pays $1 if the Republican candidate does. It is part of Kalshi's family of 2026 Senate markets.
All races and control-of-Congress odds: Who wins Congress 2026.
QUESTIONS
Who is favored to win the North Carolina Senate race?
Kalshi's live price is at the top of the page. Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic around July 1 and Sabato's Crystal Ball put it at Leans Democratic on June 11, the only Republican-held seat either rates as leaning the other way. Those calls carry their dates, and WhaleScanr takes no position of its own.
Who is running for Senate in North Carolina in 2026?
Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. The seat is open because Thom Tillis, the Republican incumbent, is retiring.
When is the North Carolina Senate election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The Cooper and Whatley matchup is set, so the general election is the next date on this race's calendar.
Is this financial advice?
No. What appears here is a market price, dated ratings from named raters and the anonymous public tape, described as they stand. WhaleScanr holds no position on the race or any contract. Described, never advised.
The other leaning Senate races tracked here: Georgia · Texas