2026 MIDTERM ODDS · TEXAS
Texas Senate 2026: odds and whale flow.
Kalshi prices Republicans at 54 cents to win the Texas Senate race. Republican Ken Paxton, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, faces Democrat James Talarico.
as of 2026-07-29 07:13 UTC · source: Kalshi SENATETX-26
THE ODDS
| PARTY | PRICE | IMPLIED | 24H Δ | 24H VOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 54¢ | 54% | -4¢ | 344K |
| Democrats | 47¢ | 47% | +4¢ | 63K |
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THE RACE
The Republican nomination changed hands. Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff with 63.8 percent of the vote, and the Texas Tribune noted that no incumbent Texas senator had lost renomination since 1970. The Democratic nominee is James Talarico, who won his primary with 53 percent over Crockett.
Cook Political Report, as of around July 1, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of June 11, both rate the race Lean Republican. A rating describes the raters' view on those dates, while the number at the top of this page is the market's, updated with every trade. WhaleScanr reports both and endorses neither.
WHALE FLOW · TEXAS SENATE
Whale-sized trades on this race total $205K over the last 30 days. Of that, 75 percent is on NO on the Republican contract.
bought NO on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 46¢ · 193× typical
$125K
bought NO on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 44¢ · 161× typical
$104K
bought YES on the Democratic contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 44¢ · 293× typical
$64K
bought YES on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 56¢ · 21× typical
$14K
bought YES on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 57¢ · 16× typical
$10K
bought NO on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 44¢ · 15× typical
$9.6K
bought YES on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 57¢ · 11× typical
$6.8K
bought NO on the Republican contract · Texas Senate winner?
at 45¢ · 10× typical
$6.6K
The largest whale-sized trades on the Texas Senate market, last 30 days. Kalshi publishes the trade, not the trader: a whale is a large trade, not an identified person. Described, never advised.
Every print above hit the live feed the moment it landed. The Discord posts the largest in real time, free.
HOW THIS MARKET SETTLES
The race lists as two party contracts. The Democratic contract pays $1 if the Democratic candidate wins the Texas seat, and the Republican contract pays $1 if the Republican candidate does, with each price reading as a percent chance. It trades within Kalshi's 2026 Senate family.
All races and control-of-Congress odds: Who wins Congress 2026.
QUESTIONS
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Kalshi's live price sits at the top of the page and moves with the tape. Cook Political Report (around July 1) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (June 11) both rate the race Lean Republican. WhaleScanr takes no view.
Who is running for Senate in Texas in 2026?
Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Paxton won the May 26 runoff over Sen. John Cornyn with 63.8 percent, per the Texas Tribune, and Talarico took the Democratic primary with 53 percent over Crockett.
When is the Texas Senate election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The runoffs are done and both nominees are set, so no further primary stands before the general.
Is this financial advice?
No. Prices, attributed ratings and anonymous trades appear here as reported facts, not guidance. WhaleScanr takes no side on any race, party or contract. Described, never advised.
The other leaning Senate races tracked here: North Carolina · Georgia