2026 MIDTERM ODDS · ALASKA
Alaska Senate 2026: odds and whale flow.
Kalshi prices Democrats at 55 cents to win the Alaska Senate race. Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is defending the seat against Mary Peltola, the Democratic challenger.
as of 2026-07-29 09:18 UTC · source: Kalshi SENATEAK-26
THE ODDS
| PARTY | PRICE | IMPLIED | 24H Δ | 24H VOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 55¢ | 55% | 0 | 204 |
| Republicans | 48¢ | 48% | +1¢ | 2.4K |
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THE RACE
Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is defending the seat. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, is challenging him, and the two meet on the November 3 ballot.
Alaska is a Toss Up on both major boards, at Cook Political Report as of around July 1 and at Sabato's Crystal Ball as of June 11. The ratings speak for their raters on those dates; the live price above speaks for the market, trade by trade. WhaleScanr reports each and adopts neither.
One of four Senate toss-ups at both raters. The toss-up arithmetic is on the 2026 hub.
WHALE FLOW · ALASKA SENATE
Whale-sized trades on this race total $1.8K over the last 30 days. Of that, 100 percent is on the Democratic contract.
bought YES on the Democratic contract · Alaska Senate winner?
at 55¢
$1.8K
bought NO on the Democratic contract · Alaska Senate winner?
at 45¢
$1.4K
bought NO on the Republican contract · Alaska Senate winner?
at 56¢ · 2× typical
$1.1K
The largest whale-sized trades on the Alaska Senate market, last 30 days. Nothing on Kalshi's public tape names who traded, only how much, which way, at what price and when, so a whale is defined by size alone. Described, never advised.
Every print above hit the live feed the moment it landed. The Discord posts the largest in real time, free.
HOW THIS MARKET SETTLES
Two party contracts make up this market. A Democratic win of the Alaska seat pays the Democratic contract $1, a Republican win pays the Republican contract $1, and prices quoted in cents translate one for one into percent chances. The market is part of Kalshi's 2026 Senate family.
All races and control-of-Congress odds: Who wins Congress 2026.
QUESTIONS
Who is favored to win the Alaska Senate race?
Kalshi's live price at the top of this page updates with each trade. Cook Political Report rated Alaska a Toss Up as of around July 1, as did Sabato's Crystal Ball on June 11. WhaleScanr states both without taking a side.
Who is running for Senate in Alaska in 2026?
Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, and Mary Peltola, the Democratic challenger. The two meet on the November 3, 2026 ballot.
When is the Alaska Senate election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Alaska's seat is one of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot that day.
Is this financial advice?
No. WhaleScanr sets out the price, the dated ratings and the anonymous tape as a record of what they show, and it stops at the record. No trade and no candidate is being recommended. Described, never advised.