2026 MIDTERM ODDS · OHIO
Ohio Senate special 2026: odds and whale flow.
Kalshi prices Democrats at 51 cents to win the Ohio Senate race. Jon Husted, the Republican appointed to the seat JD Vance left for the vice presidency, faces Democrat Sherrod Brown.
as of 2026-07-29 07:13 UTC · source: Kalshi SENATEOHS-26
THE ODDS
| PARTY | PRICE | IMPLIED | 24H Δ | 24H VOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 51¢ | 51% | 0 | 10K |
| Republicans | 49¢ | 49% | -1¢ | 2.8K |
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THE RACE
The seat came open when JD Vance left the Senate to become vice president. Jon Husted, a Republican, was appointed to the vacancy and now stands in the special election to keep it, per Ballotpedia's June 8 report. The Democratic candidate is Sherrod Brown. The special runs on the same day as the year's regularly scheduled Senate races, Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The special is a Toss Up at Cook Political Report, as of around July 1, and at Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of June 11. A rating records the raters' judgment on its date; the price above records the market's, refreshed with every trade. WhaleScanr prints both and sides with neither.
One of four Senate toss-ups at both raters. The toss-up arithmetic is on the 2026 hub.
WHALE FLOW · OHIO SENATE SPECIAL
Whale-sized trades on this race total $11K over the last 30 days. Of that, 53 percent is on the Republican contract.
bought YES on the Republican contract · Ohio Senate winner?
at 52¢ · 7× typical
$5.8K
bought YES on the Democratic contract · Ohio Senate winner?
at 51¢ · 29× typical
$5.1K
bought YES on the Republican contract · Ohio Senate winner?
at 50¢ · 2× typical
$1.4K
bought NO on the Democratic contract · Ohio Senate winner?
at 49¢ · 6× typical
$1.0K
The largest whale-sized trades on the Ohio Senate special market, last 30 days. Every print on the public tape is anonymous, carrying size, side, price and time and no more, so a whale means a large trade, never an identified trader. Described, never advised.
Every print above hit the live feed the moment it landed. The Discord posts the largest in real time, free.
HOW THIS MARKET SETTLES
Kalshi structures the special as one contract per party. The Democratic contract settles at $1 on a Democratic win of the seat, the Republican contract settles at $1 on a Republican win, and a price in cents is read directly as a percent chance. Both sit inside Kalshi's family of 2026 Senate markets.
All races and control-of-Congress odds: Who wins Congress 2026.
QUESTIONS
Who is favored to win the Ohio Senate special election?
The live price at the top of the page is the market's running answer. Cook Political Report, as of around July 1, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of June 11, both rate the special a Toss Up, one of four on their Senate boards. WhaleScanr publishes the price and the ratings and holds no view.
Who is running in Ohio's 2026 Senate special election?
Jon Husted, the Republican appointed to the seat after JD Vance became vice president, and Democrat Sherrod Brown, per Ballotpedia's June 8 report.
When is the Ohio Senate special election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, the same day as the year's regularly scheduled Senate races. It is a special election for the balance of the seat's current term, held because JD Vance left the Senate to become vice president.
Is this financial advice?
No. The page carries a market price, ratings from named raters with their dates attached and trades from an anonymous public tape, and nothing here recommends a trade or a candidate. Described, never advised.